Soccerwise sets Charlotte FC's over/under line at 52.5 points for 2026

By Billy McGee - @iambillymcgee

Photo courtesy CJ Hellner/TopBin90

The Soccerwise podcast did their annual over/under episode, where they set point total lines for each MLS club with Matt Doyle. Charlotte FC’s line was set at 52.5 points, 6.5 points lower than their point total of 59 last season. Tom Bogert and David Gass both took the over, while Doyle took the under.

The line is the same that was given last year when Bogert, Gass, and Doyle all went over for Charlotte.

Note: podcast was recorded on January 27

Bogert voiced concerns about Charlotte FC's DPs but noted he felt they have a high floor, and players like Idan Toklomati as keys to why he gave them the over. 

“The variability that could come from Wilfried Zaha worries me. I’m not as worried about some of the ages for some of the key players as I think you guys are. I do think Toklomati is excellent. I don’t think that that was just a hot stretch; I think that’s just who he is, what he did down the stretch last season. I’m just so very hopeful that at the time somebody’s listening to this that Liel Abada does not play for Charlotte FC and they have an open DP spot.”

Gass’ reasoning for going over was his confidence in Charlotte FC’s ability to replace Adilson Malanda defensively, and the addition of Luca de la Torre and how he’ll help the attack, but he doesn’t believe the team will be as good as last year, just over the line of 52.5.

“I don’t think the step back losing Malanda will be that big, if at all. Justice for Andrew Privett, I think Tim Ream called him Privs, so we’re team Privs on this show. I think de la Torre, yeah, he’s not a true pure chance creator, but maybe it pushes Pep Biel out wide where he can go find the game where he wants to as often as he needs to.”

Doyle factored in the age of the lineup and the club no longer having Malanda on the back line into his prediction as the reason why he went under.

“I’m more worried about the age stuff than I think you guys are. Old teams get old fast, and it looked like it happened down the stretch in the playoffs… Adilson Malanda was a dominant force in his own box. Even if they go out and spend seven million dollars on a new centerback, I don’t think that that is going to, it’s not easy to replicate that.”

Bogert had some pushback on what he believed the story of Charlotte FC's playoff loss was and how they’ve addressed it.

“My only pushback is, I think the story of the NYCFC playoff loss was more about, I don’t know how many times the ball could die at the feet of Djibril Diani or Brandt Bronico in the final third, and Luca de la Torre helps solve that, and Pep Biel being back obviously solves that even more.”

Full transcript:

Bogert: “So, genuinely, I do think it's an over, but I did go back and forth on this because 52.5, I think that was a really good line, Doyle. Again, if they’re anywhere between 48 and 55, I think it's a good season, varying at the top and the low end. I think this is their window, I think this is their ballpark. The variability that could come from Wilfried Zaha worries me. I’m not as worried about some of the ages for some of the key players as I think you guys are. I do think Toklomati is excellent. I don’t think that that was just a hot stretch; I think that’s just who he is, what he did down the stretch last season. I’m just so very hopeful that at the time somebody’s listening to this, that Liel Abada does not play for Charlotte FC and they have an open DP spot. I’d feel much better about the over if I knew that for a fact right now. But, I think this team has enough talent, and if Dean Smith lets Luca de la Torre play through sometimes, that he's not going to run like Brandt Bronico, they're going to be better with the ball. I don’t know if he’s going to, though.

Gass: “I’m going to go over as well. I don’t think the step back losing Malanda will be that big, if at all. Justice for Andrew Privett, I think Tim Ream called him Privs, so we’re team Privs on this show. I think de la Torre, yeah, he’s not a true pure chance creator, but maybe it pushes Pep Biel out wide, where he can go find the game where he wants to as often as he needs to. Maybe it takes a little bit of pressure off Kerwin Vargas’ shoulders. I think a full season of Toklomati, I like Archie Goodwin as well, just like throwing their bodies around and figuring out the position can be pretty strong. I think that Charlotte will be worse than they were last year, but I still think they’ll be over this number because this is a six-to-seven-point gap.”

Doyle: “Yeah, I’m gonna take the under. I’m more worried about the age stuff than I think you guys are. Old teams get old fast, and it looked like it happened down the stretch in the playoffs.

Gass: “Not on turf, not in an outdoor stadium.”

Doyle: “Yeah, right, not in a swamp. You know, think about how old they looked in that elimination game against a shorthanded NYCFC team, right? Like that game, the story of that game was a bunch of like 34-year-old, 35-year-old, being behind the ball, just getting absolutely roasted, not able to make plays in open field. So, they still have Kritijan Kahlina, who is worth 10 points. But the age and then, look, Adilson Malanda was a dominant force in his own box. Even if they go out and spend seven million dollars on a new centerback, I don’t think that that is going to, it’s not easy to replicate that. So I just think that there’s enough in there to not be like, I don’t see this as a mid-50s point team, especially because they’re going to be juggling other tournaments now this year in a way that they weren’t necessarily last year.”

Bogert: “My only pushback is, I think the story of the NYCFC playoff loss was more about, I don’t know how many times the ball could die at the feet of Djibril Diani or Brandt Bronico in the final third, and Luca de la Torre helps solve that, and Pep Biel being back obviously solves that even more.”

Doyle: “I think if Luca de la Torre solved that, he would still be on San Diego. He would not be on this roster.”

Gass: “I don’t disagree with that, except it's still better than what you had last year, even if you don’t think he was worth what they paid or even if you don’t think he’s the perfect solution to what their issues were.”