Hot Take of the Week: Is Supporters' Shield or MLS Cup the greater feat?
By Brian Maurer - @BAMaurerMedia
The Supporters' Shield vs MLS Cup argument has been an ongoing discussion for many years, and it feels like the debate has built up more momentum with the amount of international influence in front offices and coaching staffs than in years past. Many of these staff members come from leagues where the emphasis is on league table finishes rather than postseason playoff runs.
The American audience, which tends to lean more heavily in favor of an emphasis on postseason playoff runs, has also been more influenced by access to international leagues' emphasis on league table finishing versus playoffs.
At the league's core audience, there is still a massive overall emphasis on the importance of making an MLS Cup run. This is also influenced by the fact that 18 teams qualify for a playoff chance, while only one of those teams has already walked away with the Supporters' Shield.
A simple version of the Shield vs Cup argument goes something like this: The Shield is more important because it highlights consistency over the course of a whole season versus the Cup is more important because it highlights a team building momentum through a gauntlet of other top-performing teams to reach the peak.
Here are a few numbers and historical stats to look at when considering both arguments:
The point average for the last eight Supporters' Shield winners (2017-25; excluding 2020) is 70.125. This means the requirement to win the Supporters' Shield has risen to winning more than two out of every three games on average over the course of the season.
Generally, the team contending for the Shield is a good MLS team that is already in the 50+ point range over recent seasons and then outperforms that average to reach the SS threshold.
For example, Nashville had 54 points last year, and they are now on pace to surpass 70 points and potentially break the points record.
The last eight MLS Cup winners (again excluding 2020) finished top four in their conference. Seven of those eight finished in the top three.
The average points needed over the last four seasons to finish top three in a conference is 57.5, but is pushing towards 60 points the last couple of years.
That means to win an MLS Cup, a team has to, on average, get to around 60 points in the regular season and then win two out of three in Round 1 and then three more games consecutively afterwards.
Argument for Supporters' Shield
Highlights team consistency over an entire season.
It is more difficult to win Supporters' Shield.
The average points needed to win Supporters' Shield is trending up, highlighting how good a season a team must have to be in contention.
Argument for MLS Cup
Highlights teams peaking and riding momentum as the season concludes.
Finishes the season with two of the top teams competing on the final matchday for maximum impact.
Recent years highlight how much the cream rises to the top, and one of the best teams generally wins holding off the lesser teams in playoffs.
