Hot Take of the Week: How close is Charlotte FC to being a true MLS contender?
By Brian Maurer (@BAMaurermedia)
Charlotte FC is eyeing a top-four spot in the Eastern Conference and is within reach of finishing second in the East. Most national pundits and probability metrics that have been released don't view Charlotte as a true contender for the MLS Cup this season. A big part of that is their last two First Round eliminations. Is it possible for them to push into that upper echelon of clubs by the end of the regular season?
Strong home form throughout the regular season is generally required to set the tone for a playoff run. Only the Portland Timbers have won the MLS Cup with fewer than 10 regular season home games since 2015. Charlotte finishing the season dominant at home is a great place for them to start to be considered a contender.
This second stat feels like an obvious one, but keeping losses low. Only four teams since 2015 have lost 10 or more times during the regular season and gone on to win the MLS Cup (Portland, Seattle twice, and NYCFC). It hasn't happened since New York's cup win in 2021. The top teams are starting to rise to the top more consistently for playoff runs. Top teams don't lose often.
To continue on the note of top teams, another important factor to be considered an MLS Cup contender is being near the top of the Supporters' Shield standings. Only the 2016 Seattle Sounders and NYCFC finished outside the top five in the Supporters' Shield and went on to win the MLS Cup since 2015. In general, to contend and win the final, you have to be a top team throughout the regular season.
Checklist for Charlotte FC to be a true MLS Cup contender heading into 2026 playoffs
Charlotte FC needs to win at minimum all three of their last three games at home
Charlotte FC can only lose one of their final seven games
Reach the top five of Supporters' Shield standings
The Crown sits three points off fifth as things stand
Current pace is 60 points
Charlotte FC need 17 points in their final seven games to reach that number
