Charlotte FC's schedule difficulty and mapping out a trophy-winning pace

By Brian Maurer

Ashley Westwood (Photo courtesy of CJ Hellner/TopBin90)

Charlotte FC finished their first road stint of 2026 and left some fans with a bit of unease heading back home for their five-game stretch. However, the club responded by getting all three points against Austin FC in their home opener. Next up for them is one of their most difficult home games of the season: Inter Miami.

In this article, I break down Charlotte's schedule by quadrant and look at a couple of variables to get a sense of each quadrant's difficulty. The two variables are their opponents' 2025 finish in the Supporters' Shield standings and a home vs away multiplier.

Across MLS, teams earned about 30% more points at home than they did away on average (26.6 vs 20.2), so my home multiplier is set at 1.3, and the away is set at 1.

Since there is an odd number of games in each half of the season (17), I included the ninth game of the season (at Orlando) in both Quadrant 1 and 2. I included the 26th game (at DC United) in Quadrants 3 and 4. I then divided each quadrant by 8.5 games to get an average level of difficulty. The lower the Quadrant average, the more difficult the quadrant in theory.

Quadrant 1

Opponent	SS Standings	Multiplier	Total
@ St Louis	24	1	24
@ LA Galaxy	26	1	26
vs Austin	15	1.3	19.5
vs Miami	3	1.3	3.9
vs RBNY	18	1.3	23.4
vs Philadelphia	1	1.3	1.3
vs Nashville	11	1.3	14.3
@ NYCFC	9	1	9
@ Orlando	14	1	14
		Q1 Average	15.93

Quadrant 1 looks to be one of Charlotte's more difficult stretches of the season, even with five straight home games. They have left their road stand with only one point, but as soon as the Crown returned home, they grabbed all three points.

Before the season started, Philadelphia Union and Orlando City looked to be more difficult matchups, but it looks like they may have switched a bit with RBNY and Nashville. Overall, the quadrant still appears to be one of Charlotte's more difficult as a whole based on these first few games.

Quadrant 2

Opponent	SS Standings	Multiplier	Total
@ Orlando	14	1	14
@ Nashville	11	1	11
@ New England	23	1	23
vs Cincinnati	2	1.3	2.6
vs NYCFC	9	1.3	11.7
vs Toronto	25	1.3	32.5
vs New England	23	1.3	29.9
vs Atlanta	29	1.3	37.7
@ RBNY	18	1	18
		Q2 Average	21.22

Quadrant 2 looks like it could be Charlotte's best and most important of the season. There are multiple favorable matchups based on last year's standings and the first few games in 2026, and they also have another five-game home stretch. It's likely the most important because it is the only quadrant that is all EC opponents.

Quadrant 3

Quadrant 3	SS Standings	Multiplier	Total
@ Chicago	13	1	13
vs Columbus	12	1.3	15.6
@ Toronto	25	1	25
vs DC	30	1.3	39
@ Atlanta	29	1	29
vs Houston	22	1.3	28.6
@ Montreal	28	1	28
@ Cincinnati	2	1	2
@ DC	30	1	30
		Q3 Average	24.73

Quadrant 3 also looks like an opportunity to pick up points, with favorable matchups throughout, though most are on the road. This is the quadrant where Charlotte may need to pick up a few extra road points to help balance out any home game slip-ups. It could also be the quadrant that gets them to the next level of their season goals.

Quadrant 4

Quadrant 4	SS Standings	Multiplier	Total
@ DC	30	1	30
vs Chicago	13	1.3	16.9
vs Dallas	16	1.3	20.8
@ Columbus	12	1	12
@ Philadelphia	1	1	1
@ Portland	17	1	17
vs Montreal	28	1.3	36.4
vs Orlando	14	1.3	18.2
@ Miami	3	1	3
		Q4 Average	18.27

Quadrant 4 looks tricky, especially on the road. The Crown will likely want to have some semblance of EC table security by Q4 and will definitely not want to be chasing going into their Decision Day matchup against Inter Miami.

Looking at Charlotte FC's season goals and the pace required

It's a common sentiment to say "this draw feels like a loss", or vice versa. This next section attempts to break down which results this season are good or bad for Charlotte FC based on the club's stated goals. This can be done by looking at the points needed to achieve each stated goal and the pace likely required to attain that goal.

• Top goal: Supporters' Shield - 69.8 points average for the last five years

• 2nd goal: MLS Cup - Top 4 Finisher in a Conference has won the last five years - 54.1 points average

• 3rd goal: Qualifying for Concacaf Champions Cup with no major trophy - 60 points got LAFC in last season with no trophy

Supporters' Shield pace: higher than an average of 3 points at home and draws on the road (68-70 pts).

MLS Cup pace: a bit higher than an average of 3 points at home (53-55 pts), to earn a top 4 seed in the conference, which is typical for the team that wins the Cup. For every dropped point at home, Charlotte needs to make that point up on the road. Currently, the Crown is +1 on this pace.

Qualifying for CCC pace: around 3 points at home plus nine road draws (59-61 pts). For every dropped point at home, Charlotte needs to pick up those points on the road plus an additional nine road points on top.

For a Supporters' Shield pace, there are no acceptable losses. There are still ways to make up points from the inevitable losses that do occur, and those come from stacking some extra road wins.

A club to put itself in MLS Cup contention historically needs to get into the top 4, which can be attained by strong home form and picking up a few extra points sporadically on the road.

Qualifying for CCC as a top-five or top-six team in the Supporters' Shield race requires strong home form and some consistent results on the road; picking up a few extra wins away allows for a bit more sporadic road form.

Now that we have an idea of the pace needed for a successful Charlotte FC season and which points are bad dropped points versus good points gained, we can combine that with our quadrants, which will provide a framework for how the Crown is performing towards their goals, given their current run of games, combined with the schedule ahead.

Quadrant 1 pace

Supporters' Shield: 19 points

MLS Cup: 16 points

CCC Qualification: 17 points

Currently on 4 points through three games:

• Current SS pace: -1 for the road loss

• Current MLS Cup pace: even

• CCC Qualification: even

Quadrant 2 pace

Supporters' Shield: 19 points

MLS Cup: 16 points

CCC Qualification: 17 points

Quadrant 3 pace

Supporters' Shield: 15 points

MLS Cup: 10 points

CCC Qualification: 12 points

Quadrant 4 pace

Supporters' Shield: 17 points

MLS Cup: 13 points

CCC Qualification: 14 points