What Charlotte FC needs to advance to the Leagues Cup Quarterfinals

By Brian Maurer

Photo courtesy of Cisco's Art/TopBin90

Charlotte FC has gotten off to a perfect start in Leagues Cup action beating Pumas 3-0 and following up that impressive result with a 2-0 win over Atlas. They now have one final test in the Group Stage, Pachuca, as they sit in prime position to finish in the top four of the MLS Standings and advance to the Quarterfinals.

Here is a look at the scenarios and games that could have implications on Charlotte's Leagues Cup run as the final round of Group Stage games gets underway:

Winning against Pachuca and finishing on a perfect nine points

Currently, the Crown is 2nd in the table entering Round 3 of the Group Stage (Charlotte loses a tiebreaker with Austin FC due to fair play points*). A win over Pachuca does not guarantee advancing as five other MLS teams are also off to a perfect six point start. With Charlotte's solid goal differential they are likely to win a tiebreaker on nine points, but no guarantees.

Here is a rundown of the games that could impact Charlotte progressing if they finish on nine points:

• Tuesday: Columbus Crew vs Pumas (eliminated)

• Tuesday: FC Cincinnati vs Atlas (eliminated)

• Wednesday: Toluca (7th) vs FC Dallas

• Thursday: Austin FC vs Club America (4th)

• Thursday: Chicago Fire vs Cruz Azul (2nd)

The main two to focus on are the Columbus Crew and FC Dallas as they are the six point teams on the outside looking in. The Crew play Pumas who have nothing to play for and Dallas plays Toluca in Mexico.

Winning by two goals will probably feel comfortable as this would force the Crew or FC Dallas to score four goals to catch the Crown's goal differential and try and force a tiebreaker on goals scored.

The Crew are favorites in their matchup and playing simultaneously to Charlotte so fans should have a good sense of where things stand Tuesday night if the Black and Blue get their third straight win.

Drawing Pachuca and winning on PKs (finishing on eight points)

Drawing Pachuca but winning on PKs makes things a bit more dicey but only adds LAFC to the six point teams above with a path past Charlotte.

LAFC face Queretaro, who are already eliminated, on Wednesday. For LAFC to have a chance to pass an eight-point Charlotte side they would need to win by at least four goals and then monitor the other tie-breakers. This scenario is a longshot, however the Crew and FC Dallas become far more in play as they can beat the Crown on points.

Drawing Pachuca and losing on PKs (finishing on seven points)

Losing in PKs would be full on squeaky bum time for Charlotte fans over the next couple days as nearly half the MLS table would be in play. Real Salt Lake sit in eighth and would feel they could have a chance with a strong win.

If Charlotte finishes on seven points they would need to avoid:

• Columbus Crew winning in PKs or better (vs Pumas)

• FC Dallas winning in PKs or better (at Toluca)

• LAFC winning (vs Queretaro)

• Real Salt Lake winning by two or more goals (vs Juarez; would only need to win by one if Charlotte's game ends 0-0)

That becomes a lot of bullets to have to dodge.

Losing against Pachuca and finishing on six points

Not getting a result against Pachuca would put Charlotte in an almost impossible situation to advance. This would technically leave almost the entire MLS table (upto 16th place) capable of passing Charlotte in the final round of the Group Stage. With six teams in MLS on six points and several more teams capable of matching or beating that number there is almost no chance that six points is enough to advance.

Additional note

Tuesday is not only a big day for Charlotte FC because its gameday but it is a pivotal day in deciding the top four as FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew also play that night. Since all three MLS sides have matchups against Mexican clubs that have been eliminated there is a chance three teams in the MLS table could already be on nine points at the end of the first night of Round 3. This would set up the wild scenario where a club could have a perfect group stage of winning all three of their games and still being eliminated on a tiebreaker.

Another note is how difficult FC Dallas, Chicago Fire, and Austin FC's opponents are, which sets up for a favorable situation for Charlotte. If any of these three teams lose their games the probability the Crown advances goes up a good amount if they come away with a result.

*Fair play points and Leagues Cup tiebreakers can be found here