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Week 4 Over/Unders To Watch

By Brian Maurer

Here are my most intriguing Week 4 match-ups for MLS Fantasy based on over/under odds:


Three Potential High Scoring Match-Ups


Atlanta United vs Portland Timbers - over 3.5 goals (+145) - Atlanta to win (-185)/ Portland to win (+425)


I am all about Thiago Almada in this match up. He has scored or assisted in every game so far. His value continues to rise and Portland looks to be a team capable of giving up goals. Atlanta United is also the current biggest betting favorite for Week 4. There should be opportunities for Portland to score as well in this match-up, as Atlanta United have a tendency to really push up high and allow space in behind. The question is whether Portland has the attacking threats to deliver the goals.


LA Galaxy vs Vancouver Whitecaps - over 3.5 goals (+155) - LA Galaxy to win (-150)/ Vancouver to win (+340)


The LA Galaxy gave up some serious shot volume on the road against Sporting KC (30 shots total). While they kept the clean sheet, the opportunities were certainly there for goals. The Vancouver Whitecaps, on the other hand, have yet to keep a clean sheet and they will be coming off a midweek CCL match so they could be coming in weary. I am eyeing premium players from the LA Galaxy, but I don’t think I am opposed to some players from the Vancouver Whitecaps either.


Houston Dynamo vs Austin FC - over 3.5 goals (+180) - Houston to win (+135)/ Austin to win (+175)


This Texan rivalry has been full of goals. In five MLS matchups there has been a total of 18 goals combined. There has only been one clean sheet and that was almost two years ago. This match up looks primed for more goals as the Houston Dynamo have given up five goals in two games to start the season. The Houston Dynamo are coming off a bye week so they will be fully rested. Austin FC, however, are coming off a midweek CCL match where they came up short as they desperately tried to make up a three goal deficit. Tiredness is likely to be a factor for them, and while they are the stronger side overall this match up seems geared for goals and a chance for the Houston Dynamo to recover points after losing in both of their East Coast matches to start the season. I am for sure eyeing Hector Herrera as he seems impervious to team results and is picking up bonus points regularly. He is also likely to continue being at the center of everything that the Houston Dynamo try to implement. Several Austin FC players are also of interest to me, both premiums and value players.


Three Potential Low Scoring Match-Ups


Orlando City vs Charlotte FC - under 2.5 goals (-110) - Orlando City to win (+105)/ Charlotte to win (+245)


Charlotte FC have struggled mightily to score goals. So has Orlando City. Both teams have only scored one non-penalty goal so far this season. With both of attacks off to slow starts, and Orlando City likely to be a bit sluggish after being defeated in their midweek CCL match against Tigres, this game looks primed to be a low scoring affair. Pedro Gallese looks like a prime candidate to have a big game, because of the match up and the incredible form he is in right now.


New England Revolution vs Nashville SC - under 2.5 goals (-130) - New England to win (+135)/ Nashville to win (+200)


New England Revolution are coming off of a Sunday battering by the LAFC, losing 4-0. Nashville SC have three straight clean sheets to start the season. If Carles Gil remains sidelined for this weekend matchup this could be a very low scoring affair. I am eyeing both teams' defenders, and Hany Mukhtar as his value continues to drop.


New York Red Bulls vs Columbus Crew - under 2.5 goals (-135) - NYRB to win (-125)/ Columbus to win (+340)


The New York Red Bulls have only scored once so far this season. The Columbus Crew have scored twice so far on the road this season, however their goal against Philadelphia in Week 1 was an own goal. The Columbus Crew have struggled so far this season to generate offense on the road, while the New York Red Bulls have struggled to generate goals period. This makes for a potential grind it out low scoring affair especially in New York where the Red Bulls shut out Nashville SC in Week 2. New York Red Bull defenders should be viable options this week.



*Next week I will be including fantasy point data from the MLS Fantasy data I am collecting throughout the season. There was really not much point in using it before next week as not enough games have been played yet per team, but starting next week I will apply some of it to this weekly over/under article as a bit of additional information that hopefully will be of use.


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