Are Charlotte FC's early-season results hiding defensive fragility?
- Brian Maurer
- Apr 17
- 5 min read
By Brian Maurer
Charlotte FC is off to its best start in club history. They are ranked second in the Eastern Conference and third in the Supporters' Shield standings with two home games to finish April. They have given themselves a good chance of cracking 20 points through their first 10 games, and an opportunity to compete for the Supporters' Shield going into May. Dean Smith has said multiple times in press conferences this year that the team hasn't played anywhere near their best yet, which is what gives the fanbase even more to be excited about.
What has been holding the team up from playing their best? The primary focus from fans and pundits has been the attack, lacking improvement from last year. It's a valid concern as the team's attack volume through eight games this year (10.57 xG*) is nearly the same as through eight games in 2024 (10.51 xG).
The silver lining from an attacking standpoint has been that attacking midfielder Pep Biel looks capable of putting up the kind of numbers needed consistently to give this team a shot at both the top four in the East and trophies. In 1247 regular-season MLS minutes, he has 13 goal contributions (5g/8a). The sample size on the Spaniard is growing, and he continues to provide goals, giving Charlotte something they have never had in club history: a consistent week-in, week-out goal contributor.
Charlotte's defense has not been talked about being an issue mainly because they are getting results, Kristijan Kahlina has continued to make big-time saves, and the team has kept three clean sheets. However, the amount of attacking volume that they have allowed so far this year (14.46 xGA) shows a regression compared to 2024 (8.17 xGA through the first eight games). Their defense has allowed nearly twice as much attacking volume with the same backline and midfield. What has caused Charlotte to look so much more exposed defensively?
Building out of the back is leaving Charlotte FC exposed
From reviewing recent performances and data through the first eight games and comparing that data to the rest of MLS, it looks like Charlotte is going through a bit of a style change, and that has led to more mistakes and chances allowed.
The primary change looks to be that the Crown spends more time playing out of the back with longer bouts of sustained possession. This buildup play has led to turnovers in dangerous areas, leaving the defense more exposed to quick counters. They tried this for the first 30 minutes or so against the Colorado Rapids a couple of weeks ago, and they allowed multiple dangerous opportunities early that Colorado couldn't take advantage of.
This past Saturday against CF Montreal, Charlotte turned the ball over at least seven times in the first 32 minutes in their defensive third. This happened again at least seven more times in the first 16 minutes of the second half. This gave Montreal many opportunities to win the ball in midfield or in the attacking third to build a quicker attacking sequence against a defense on the back foot.
These are just two recent game examples, but season-long data also backs up this theory. According to FBRef, Charlotte FC opponents are winning tackles against them, T-third most of any team in MLS (12.1 tackles won per 90**). A lot of those tackles are happening in Charlotte's middle (7.50 tackles per 90 against) or defensive third (3 tackles per 90 against). Those tackles against stats are the fifth and sixth most in MLS, respectively.
Teams that are getting tackled the most, sorted by tackles won by opponents
Team | Opponents' tackles won | Opponents' tackles in defensive 3rd | Opponents' tackles in the middle 3rd | Opponents' tackles in the final 3rd |
Chicago Fire | 12.6 | 8.25 | 8.38 | 4.13 |
LAFC | 12.5 | 9.13 | 7.50 | 3.13 |
NY Red Bulls | 12.1 | 8.63 | 7.13 | 2.13 |
Charlotte FC | 12.1 | 7.88 | 7.50 | 3 |
FC Cincinnati | 12 | 9.63 | 7.38 | 3.25 |
Charlotte overall, is being tackled and intercepted more than average (tackles+interceptions = 27.5/90, tied for sixth most in MLS).
All of this is to say that while the defense looks frail at times, it's not necessarily the defensive players themselves. It looks more like the evolution of Dean Smith's system and the learning curve that is coming with it. However, there is one area that Charlotte's defense has struggled this year, and that is stopping the ball carrier.
Charlotte FC is struggling to stop the ball
Charlotte opponents are finding success when attacking them on the dribble. According to FBRef, the Crown is allowing the fourth-highest successful take-on percentage in MLS (51.3%). This weakness is highlighted even more when looking at the volume of carries allowed into dangerous areas. Charlotte is allowing the most carries into the attacking third per 90 (15), and the second most carries into the penalty box per 90 (6.25).
Teams that are getting dribbled against the most, sorted by opponents' carries into the final 3rd
Team | Opponents' carries into the final 3rd | Opponents' carries into the penalty area | Opponents' successful take-on % |
Charlotte FC | 15 | 6.25 | 51.3% |
Orlando City | 14.5 | 2.63 | 45% |
Minnesota United | 14.4 | 4.75 | 39.9% |
Toronto FC | 14.4 | 5.5 | 42% |
Austin FC | 14.3 | 5.25 | 43.6% |
The Crown is struggling to stop the ball carrier. Part of that is likely due to being on the back foot from turnovers as discussed above. The concern is if this trend continues once the team gains more cohesion from reps playing out of the back. At that point, the concern has to focus on the defensive unit and individual players, as the team cannot allow some of this league's top players to carry the ball into dangerous areas and create opportunities. That volume will need to come down as the season progresses and opposition attackers round into better form.
Summary
The team as a whole is winning and climbing the table like they have never before. Optimism should stay high as those results give Charlotte a buffer to work out some of the areas of their game that aren't working as well.
Learning to sustain longer stretches of possession while building out of the back takes time. While this is, for the most part, the same group in midfield and defense, Smith is still adding new layers to how he wants them to play and that learning curve is being expressed with some mistakes on the field. With time and reps, those mistakes should lessen.
In an ideal scenario, fewer turnovers in dangerous areas will lead to fewer moments where the defense is on the back foot, which will lead to a reduction in the number of times opponents can carry the ball through Charlotte's defense. If Charlotte's opponents continue being able to carry the ball forward into dangerous areas into the summer, then questions will probably need to be asked about how the team is setting up and what solutions can be done to help bring those moments down. Charlotte FC does not want to be leading in those take-ons against stats when it comes to a playoff series against a Lionel Messi or Evander.
*- expected goal data is from American Soccer Analysis
**- all other data is from FBRef
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